Probable Starter Context
Stack Watch
Pitcher-specific Stack Score for probable starters, with opponent lineup LBI, HR park factor, and weather shown as context only.
Slate date: 2026-08-22
Generated: 2026-08-22 17:55 UTC
Generated: 2026-08-22 17:55 UTC
Partial slate: 1 probable starter slot still TBD; some lineups are still using team-power proxies. Stack scores will update as MLB publishes probable pitchers and confirmed lineups.
Thunder Allowed
HR-Window Thunder Allowed is the share of batted balls allowed at 105+ mph with a launch angle between 25° and 40°. Stack Score ranks probable starters by this HR-shaped contact signal, with xHR/BBE allowed and HR-capable contact as support.
Color Key
Mustard rows are limited-sample starters. Full-sample rows are unshaded.
| # | Pitcher | Stack Score | Thunder Allowed | xHR/BBE Allowed | HR-Capable / BBE | HDI | Opp LBI | Park | Weather | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dean KremerMIN away vs SD | 99.3 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 14.2% | 191.5 | 94.4team proxy | Petco ParkNeutral | 79 F, 6 mph wind, 1% rain | HDD backs the signal; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 2 | Jake IrvinWSH away vs MIA | 95.8 | 3.5% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 133.0 | 79.5confirmed | loanDepot parkMajor HR Suppressor | 90 F, 10 mph wind, 4% rain | HDD backs the signal; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 3 | Andrew PainterPHI home vs STL | 87.7 | 2.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 118.7 | 91.4team proxy | Citizens Bank ParkNeutral | 73 F, 8 mph wind, 13% rain | HDD backs the signal; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 4 | Eury PérezMIA home vs WSH | 83.4 | 2.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 97.7 | 84.1confirmed | loanDepot parkMajor HR Suppressor | 90 F, 10 mph wind, 4% rain | Attackable thunder profile; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 5 | Ryan WeathersNYY home vs TOR | 81.3 | 2.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 95.4 | 86.7confirmed | Yankee StadiumSignificant HR Boost | 77 F, 5 mph wind, 1% rain | Attackable thunder profile; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 6 | Rhett LowderCIN away vs AZ | 78.4 | 2.2% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 98.9 | 91.9team proxy | Chase FieldSlight HR Suppressor | 114 F, 5 mph wind, 1% rain | Attackable thunder profile; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 7 | Jared JonesPIT away vs LAD | 76.1 | 1.7% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 155.1 | 104.5team proxy | UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumSignificant HR Boost | 90 F, 9 mph wind, 1% rain | xHR support is there; Wind context available |
| 8 | Tanner BibeeCLE away vs COL | 71.8 | 1.8% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 102.9 | 102.6team proxy | Coors FieldNeutral | 90 F, 15 mph wind, 21% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 9 | Ryan JohnsonLAA away vs TEX | 71.1 | 1.6% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 147.6 | 103.7team proxy | Globe Life FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | 106 F, 8 mph wind, 2% rain | xHR support is there; Wind context available |
| 10 | Luis CastilloCWS home vs NYM | 68.9 | 1.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 100.4 | 97.0team proxy | Rate FieldSlight HR Boost | 77 F, 9 mph wind, 6% rain | xHR support is there; Wind context available |
| 11 | Cody BradfordTEX home vs LAA | 66.0 | 2.0% | 2.9% | 8.2% | 88.5team proxy | Globe Life FieldSignificant HR Suppressor | 106 F, 8 mph wind, 2% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available | |
| 12 | Drew AndersonDET away vs KC | 55.4 | 1.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 98.8 | 97.5team proxy | Kauffman StadiumNeutral | 86 F, 7 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 13 | Shane McClanahanTB away vs BAL | 49.2 | 1.4% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 93.7 | 114.5team proxy | Oriole Park at Camden YardsNeutral | 77 F, 8 mph wind, 11% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 14 | Hunter BrownHOU home vs ATH | 41.9 | 1.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 84.8 | 98.2team proxy | Daikin ParkSignificant HR Boost | 96 F, 2 mph wind, 1% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 15 | Christian ScottNYM away vs CWS | 39.7 | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 80.1 | 100.4team proxy | Rate FieldSlight HR Boost | 77 F, 9 mph wind, 6% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 16 | Martín PérezATL away vs MIL | 36.1 | 1.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 70.8 | 98.6confirmed | American Family FieldNeutral | 77 F, 11 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 17 | Brandon YoungBAL home vs TB | 31.9 | 1.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 74.6 | 88.2team proxy | Oriole Park at Camden YardsNeutral | 77 F, 8 mph wind, 11% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 18 | Michael WachaKC home vs DET | 30.3 | 0.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 92.7 | 92.2team proxy | Kauffman StadiumNeutral | 86 F, 7 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 19 | Logan HendersonMIL home vs ATL | 28.7 | 0.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 97.7 | 109.4confirmed | American Family FieldNeutral | 77 F, 11 mph wind, 0% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 20 | Casey MizeSD home vs MIN | 26.9 | 1.1% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 79.9 | 93.9team proxy | Petco ParkNeutral | 79 F, 6 mph wind, 1% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 21 | Gabriel HughesCOL home vs CLE | 25.1 | 0.9% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 87.1team proxy | Coors FieldNeutral | 90 F, 15 mph wind, 21% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available | |
| 22 | Jacob LopezATH away vs HOU | 21.3 | 0.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 81.2 | 99.5team proxy | Daikin ParkSignificant HR Boost | 96 F, 2 mph wind, 1% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 23 | Tarik SkubalLAD home vs PIT | 21.1 | 0.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 89.7 | 86.6team proxy | UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumSignificant HR Boost | 90 F, 9 mph wind, 1% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 24 | Michael SorokaAZ home vs CIN | 17.8 | 0.8% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 77.6 | 104.2team proxy | Chase FieldSlight HR Suppressor | 114 F, 5 mph wind, 1% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 25 | Dylan CeaseTOR away vs NYY | 11.6 | 0.7% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 70.3 | 110.4confirmed | Yankee StadiumSignificant HR Boost | 77 F, 5 mph wind, 1% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available |
| 26 | Patrick SandovalBOS home vs SF | 8.1 | 0.0% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 105.7team proxy | Fenway ParkMajor HR Suppressor | 69 F, 3 mph wind, 9% rain | Attack profile elevated; Wind context available | |
| 27 | David PetersonCHC away vs SEA | 5.4 | 0.3% | 2.5% | 5.9% | 79.2 | 90.1team proxy | T-Mobile ParkSlight HR Boost | 74 F, 7 mph wind, 2% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available |
| 28 | Blade TidwellSF away vs BOS | 2.3 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 90.8team proxy | Fenway ParkMajor HR Suppressor | 69 F, 3 mph wind, 9% rain | Attack profile elevated; Lineup power lighter; Wind context available | |
| 29 | Kade AndersonSEA home vs CHC | 97.5team proxy | T-Mobile ParkSlight HR Boost | 74 F, 7 mph wind, 2% rain | No current data; Wind context available |
Stack Score remains pitcher-specific. Opponent lineup LBI, HR park factor, and weather are context only.